June 27, 2008

Forex For Newbies- Will Forex Investing Work For Me?

What is Forex? The FOREX (Foreign Exchange Market), is the international market, started in the 70’s where currencies are bought and sold.

What currency is traded in the Forex market?

The item traded by Forex traders and investors are currency pairs. A currency pair is the exchange rate of one currency over another. The most popular currency pairs are:

USD/CHF: Swiss franc
GBP/USD: Pound
USD/CAD: Canadian dollar
USD/JPY: Yen
AUD/USD: Aussie
EUR/USD: Euro

The first currency of each currency pair is referred as the base currency, while second currency is referred as the counter or quote currency.

All currency pairs are quoted with a bid and ask price. The bid (always lower than the ask) is the price your broker is willing to buy at, thus the trader should sell at this price.

When dealing in Forex you will frequently hear the term pip. A pip is the minimum move a currency pair can make. Pip means price interest point. A move in the EUR/USD from 1.2545 to 1.2554 equals 9 pips.

The purpose of trading is to buy low and sell high. The foreign currency market FOREX is no different. The product traded are rates of currencies of different countries.

FOREX is a really unusual market for a variety of reasons. First, it is one of the few markets that it is free of any outside controls and that it cannot be manipulated. It is also the largest liquid financial market, with trade reaching between 1 and 1.7 trillion US dollars a day.

When this amount of money moves this fast, you can easily understand why a few investors would find it almost impossible to radically increase or decrease the price of a major currency.

The liquidity of the market means that unlike some stocks, traders are able to open and close positions within a few seconds as there are many buyers and sellers.

Margin Trading:

Margin trading refers to the leverage dollars given to the traders in the market.

One of the best features in Forex trading is that traders are able to trade foreign currencies with high margin.

In Forex, normal trade margins are 100:1 and 150:1, or even 200:1 trade margins. You get 1:1 margin for stock exchanges, 2:1 margin for equity trading, 15:1 margin for futures market. You can easily see how much more attractive Forex Trading is for the average trader.

This very attractive feature can also be dangerous. Traders should be very aware of the margin call and should always avoid them at all cost.

The typical broker will require a minimum account size, also known as account margin or initial margin. Once you have deposited your money you will then be able to trade. The broker will also specify how much they require per position (lot) traded.

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Forex Technical Analysis For The Novice Investor

Technical analysis tries to forecast future price movements by analzing past market data.

One of the basic principles of technical analysis is that historical price data predicts future price action.

Whereas the forex is a 24-hour market, there tends to be a signifcant amount of data that can be used to determine possible future price activity. This makes it an ideal market for traders that use technical tools, such as trends, charts and indicators.

There are three basic steps forming the basis of technical analysis:

1. Market action discounts everything! This means that the price is a reflection of all components that is known to affect the market. Some of the factors are: fundamentals, supply and demand, political pressure factors and market sentiment. Pure technical analysis is only concerned with up and down price movements, not with the reasons for those changes.

2. Prices move in trends. Technical analysis is used to calculate patterns of market behavior. That market behavior has been recognized as significant. For many given patterns there is a high probability that they will produce the expected results. You should also be aware that there are patterns that repeat on a predictable basis.

3. History repeats itself. Forex Trading chart patterns have been recognized and categorized for over 100 years, and this leads to the conclusion that human psychology changes little over time. Since patterns have worked well in the past, it is assumed that they will not change in the future.

Technical analysis goal is to forecast price trends in future based on historical data along with the volume. Any private investor can access the technical analysis tools in order to compute his or her trading decisions. Technical analysis has been in use for centuries, that’s why its premises are based on the experience, prolonged observation and can be considered quite reliable.

Japan traders have been using candlestick techniques since in the 18th century, so, it is thought as the oldest one

Even fundamental traders will glance at a chart to see if they’re buying at a fair price, selling at a historical top or entering a sideways market.

Useful technical analysis tools

RSI (Relative Strength Index) - The RSI is a price-following oscillator that ranges between 0 and 100.

Chart patterns - Trend, Support, Resistance, Flag, Pennant, Wedge, Gap, Head and shoulders, Rectangle, Ascending triangle, Descending triangle, Symmetrical triangle, Breakout, Double top, Triple top, Double bottom, Triple bottom, Price channel, Rounding bottom, Rounding top.

Fibonacci - Interpretation of the Fibonacci numbers in technical analysis predicts changes in trends as prices approach lines created by Fibonacci studies. When used in technical analysis, the golden ratio is typically translated into three percentages: 38.2%, 50% and 61.8%.

Technical analysis is valuable because every possible bit of information is included in the price of a security, it is not necessary to analyze the fundamental, economic, political, etc. factors that might influence that price. Because all available information is already included in the current price, just a study of the price movement is required.

This is just a very basic introduction to Forex Technical Analysis. You should do much more reading before investing your hard earned money.

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Forex Trading Psychology

First fatal psychological mistake.

Following blindly is the most Forex traders’ fatal psychological weakness. As new financial data is published, most Forex traders will rush to be first to enter the market. In such situation, most Forex traders seem fearless, not fearing making losses and only worry that others are making profit and worrying that they must enter or lose money.

There are many Forex traders who watch the Forex chart closely, and will enter a market when the chart show a steep movement. They don’t even take time to understand what are the forces causing movement. It may be too late when they finally realize that it is a false alarm because they are already in the losing position.

When it comes to trading, one of the most neglected important subjects are those dealing with trading psychology. Most traders spend lots of time trying to find that perfect system. But having a good operating system is just a small part of the game. It is very important to have a system that well suits the trader, but it is as important as having a money management plan, or to understand all the psychology barriers that will affect the trading decisions. In order to succeed in this business, there must be an equalness between all important aspects of trading.

When you lose a trade, what is the first thought that pops up in your mind? It would probably be, “There must be something wrong with my system”, or “I knew it, I shouldn’t have taken this trade”.

FOREX trading is pure volatility and 80% of all trades do not last more than 2-3 days. Most of them become daytrades. It is easy to accept that conditions can and will change in a heartbeat, rendering most trade plans obsolete.

One principle is about cutting your losses at an early stage. Some traders want to believe that their losses might do well after a lenghty waiting time. More than likely the market moves against these non-profitable positions and make them lose hundred of points. Even if they rise again they will be unprofitable. Do not be caught up in the thought that every trade should be profitable. If you can profit from half the number of your trades you are on the right track. If you would like to get even and profit if only half of your trades are winners is to allow your winners to run and to minimize your losses.

Another principle is playing smart by not letting your emotions rule in trading. Be objective with your decisions. While in the market,be sensitive enough to see the factors that may have influenced the changes that worked against the original analysis you had worked out.

Expect the unexpected,both good and bad. Understand these happings, be prepared, and take the appropriate actions. A good psychology plan takes into consideration that you can not predict what is going to happen in the market.

Unless you’re trading in short positions, only increase your position when prices goes up, not down. Generally, when a price starts to move it usually continues in that direction for a while.

How to Handle a Losing Streak:
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Don’t overtrade. If you are trading several currency markets and not having any success, cut back to trading one or two markets. Follow those fewer trades more closely and document your success or failures more easily. Plus, your trading account won’t be drawn down so quickly.If you trade less you may discover why you are not successful.

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